For the seventh straight year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting an active hurricane season, amid warming ocean temperatures and shifting weather patterns across the globe.
The Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1 and runs through Nov. 30. Forecasters at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center are predicting 14 to 21 named storms this year, including six to 10 hurricanes and three to six major hurricanes. The annual forecast was issued last week.
“The seasonal outlook is a good reminder that hurricane season is here, and you need to prepare now,” NOAA spokesman and meteorologist Dennis Feltgen told the Gazette by phone Tuesday. “You need to prepare for this season as if you’re going to get hit,” he said.
NOAA hurricane predictions do not include landfall. But according to NOAA calculations, the Vineyard can expect a hurricane to come within 50 nautical miles every 13 years, and a major hurricane every 62 years.
The last hurricane to make direct landfall on the Vineyard was Hurricane Bob in August 1991, a category one storm that downed hundreds of trees, tossed boats onto dry land and knocked out power in some areas of the Island for more than a week.
In 2012, the remnants of Hurricane Sandy caused widespread flooding and coastal erosion across the Island.
The increased likelihood of an active hurricane season this year is based on a number of climate factors, according to NOAA, including ongoing La Niña ( a weather pattren that occurs in the Pacific ocean), warm surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, weak tropical trade winds and a West African monsoon.
Mr. Feltgen said persisting supply chain issues make preparedness more important than ever this year.
“You really should have a week’s worth of supplies,” he said.
